In 2020, a single. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? Their concerns are real. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. 4. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. Trump County, USA - POLITICO Magazine This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. our Gitlab account where you can As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? 12. These key counties are telling the story of America's shifting And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. 2. Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. 03:30. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. 3. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. Trump gave them hope. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. (subject to censorship). (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. Bellwether - Wikipedia More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). "They followed through the whole four years. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington). Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. But it's still indicative of widespread support. That's 14 in a row. 9 Battleground State Counties That Trump and Biden Need to Win - The A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. Bellwether Counties Historical Performance 1984 to 2020 Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. 2016 Election (1135) Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. 10. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! What results did you discover? Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. In communities . Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). Lets find a coin, and flip it. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. Click here, for more. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. 8. 10 bellwether counties that could signal where the election is headed Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. Subscribe to breaking updates In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. So, where are the bellwether counties? 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. Ron Elving . Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? The Tipping Points of the 2016 Election - The Atlantic This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. Not anymore. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Free and open-source. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. 25 battleground counties to watch - POLITICO In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. Really stop reading. Still, the state's worth watching. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. 2023 BBC. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS Their emotions and decision making process are real. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. The matters that way on their minds are real. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Team up with others in your region, and help out by 11. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here.

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